The State of the National Security Space Workforce

Patricia Maloney and Michael Leon

The aerospace industry is bracing for a potential shortage of skilled engineers and scientists able to work on national security space programs.

A number of reports published during the last five years have addressed the state of the space industrial base. These include findings by the Presidential Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry, the Defense Science Board, the National Defense Industrial Association, and the Defense Department. While differing in intent, all of these reports point to shortages in skilled U.S. engineers and scientists able to work on national security space programs now and in the near future.

Employment in the U.S. aerospace and defense industry totaled 1.1 million in 1990 but dropped to 667,000 by 2000. By the end of 2003, total domestic aerospace/defense employment was 584,000. This decline in the overall number of employees is not the only issue—their age distribution is also a concern. Although the aerospace and defense industry has made a concerted effort to attract new employees, there is a large gap in the 30–40-year-old range, where it is estimated that supply is actually 29–46 percent below demand. These are the people with theoretical as well as practical knowledge—the individuals who will be the program managers, both in industry and on the government side in the next 6–10 years, and the concern is that there may not be enough of them to fill vital positions (see sidebar, Who Will Lead in Science and Technology?).

Compounding the problem is the fact that much of the aerospace and defense industry workforce is nearing or has reached retirement age. According to the Aerospace Industries Association, the average aerospace/defense engineer in the United States is nearly 60 years old. By 2008, approximately 27 percent of employed engineers will be eligible for retirement, and during the next decade, the number of employees with science and engineering degrees reaching traditional retirement age will triple. This demographic shift in the aerospace/defense population, coupled with increased research, development, and procurement spending, has led to the most fundamental industrial base concern for the defense industry: a lack of skilled and experienced scientists and engineers.

Parametric Analysis

Just how serious is the problem? To answer this question, Aerospace developed an Excel-based parametric model that forecasts the supply and demand of defense industry professionals and helps quantify the deficit of aerospace/defense scientists and engineers. The model forecasts the number of students pursuing undergraduate and graduate degrees by using data from the National Science Foundation and demographic information from the U.S. Census Bureau. It computes the annual number of graduates with science and engineering degrees, separating out non-U.S. citizens and those who choose not to work in the defense industry. The number of scientists and engineers is reduced by normal attrition for the forecasting, including voluntary and involuntary terminations, retirement, and mortality.

The number of engineering degrees conferred by U.S. universities was compared to national security budget data over a 30-year period. The use of statistical regression techniques produced a coefficient of determination of nearly 88 percent. This relationship was used to forecast future demand, assuming that defense spending will remain stable, although parametrically allowed to range between ±5 percent of its 2003 value.

A 100,000-person sample simulation was performed using the forecasting model. The results show a deficit of defense industry scientists and engineers for each year beginning in 2005, extending through 2020. For example, in the year 2012, the year in which the model predicts the greatest deficit, there will be a shortage of more than 34,000 scientists and engineers. However, as the wave of retirements diminishes, this shortage is predicted to decrease by an average annual rate of approximately 6 percent.

Possible Causes

In view of statistics such as these, members of the U.S. government and the aerospace and defense industry have raised concerns about the ability of the space industrial base to execute the portfolio of current and planned space programs. The question that frequently arises is: Are there sufficient programs in place to attract and retain science and engineering talent in the U.S. aerospace and defense industry?

The short answer would appear to be, "No." Several interrelated factors are involved in the failure to attract enough new talent to the field—most notably, national educational trends, the industry's need for uncommon technical skills, and competition with other technical fields.

Educational Trends

The demand for defense industry engineers and scientists is based on a strong historical relationship between defense spending and university enrollment in science and engineering curricula. This relationship is based in part on the government's offering of scholarships as well as the potential for challenging and rewarding work following graduation. From the mid-1970s through the late 1990s, academic enrollment in domestic engineering programs tracked closely to the size of the national defense budget. During this time, adjusted for inflation, defense spending grew from $86.5 billion to $252.7 billion. At the same time, the annual number of engineering degrees conferred by U.S. colleges increased from approximately 65,000 in 1975 to 121,000 in 1985.

Overlay of U.S. national defense spending and conferred engineering degrees.

The surplus/deficit of defense industry scientists and engineers (2005–2020).

The defense budget was reduced at the end of the Cold War, and the number of graduating engineers fell to 104,000 by 2000. Today, engineering enrollment is at best stagnant, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Although overall college attendance is increasing, the interest high school seniors express in engineering has remained flat in recent years.

Long-term trends show that fewer students are entering engineering programs. From 1983 to 1990, engineering undergraduate enrollment decreased sharply, followed by slower declines in the 1990s, and increased again from 2000 to 2002. At the bachelor's degree level, undergraduate enrollment in engineering declined by more than 20 percent in a 16-year period, from 441,000 students in 1983, to 361,000 students in 1999, before rebounding to 421,000 in 2002.

The number of master's degrees earned in science and engineering by U.S. citizens and permanent residents peaked in 1995 and has since fallen an average of 5 percent per year. Meanwhile, from 1983 to 1999, the number of master's degrees in these areas completed by foreign students (who would not be eligible for sensitive Department of Defense work) increased at an average annual rate of nearly 5 percent. The number of doctoral degrees earned in engineering by U.S. citizens also increased rapidly for more than a decade, peaked in 1996, and then declined.

Trends in engineering master's degrees.

Trends in engineering doctoral degrees.

In-Demand Skills

Today, following a long plateau, the demand for scientists and engineers in the aerospace and defense industries has never been greater, as the inflation-adjusted dollars for space acquisition (both in the unclassified and classified realms) has increased over the last 15 years. In addition, the cost and complexity of space-related programs has increased, demanding more diverse engineering skill sets. It is estimated that the space workforce supply has decreased by almost 30 percent over the last 25 years, while the demand for design and development work has risen by almost 60 percent, leaving the United States with a severe supply/demand gap in its space workforce.

What skills are most in demand and highly sought in the engineering and science fields? Systems engineering and software engineering are two disciplines that space prime contractors have designated as critical skills areas, and the lack of these skills is evident in every component of the industrial base workforce. Also in demand are skilled design, mechanical, electrical, network, and radio-frequency engineers, in addition to physicists, software systems architects, and program managers. Manufacturing-related critical competencies have also been identified, including the need for skilled fabrication mechanics, tooling engineers, welders, test operators, and electromechanical technicians.

A close look at the economic landscape is important in assessing the supply and demand of scientists and engineers available to work on current and future national security space programs. Three events are of particular note: the stock market crashes of 1997 and 2001 and the "dot-com" bust of 2001. During this time, defense was the only growing industrial area, and since then, capital investment and growth have been minimal in most other sectors. Most aerospace companies report that they were fortunate in that these forces contributed to their current headcount—these crashes actually led to gains in employees for the defense industry. However, companies also express concern that as the economy improves and the next new technology appears on the horizon, they may lose this influx of new talent.

In addition, many new space programs demand functionality and a skill mix that is forcing the space industry to compete for talent in new areas—for example, in hiring software or network engineers proficient in Internet protocols needed for transformational communications.

Workforce Competition

Expanded military missions involving global terrorism, homeland security, and the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons will require innovative technologies and the personnel to support them. An aging fleet of military aircraft will also necessitate the design and development of new generations of fighters and bombers. These are just a few of the work opportunities that are available within the defense industry.

preparing for spaceflight hardware testing

Mark Zakrzewski and Albert Lin prepare for spaceflight hardware testing.

But for students graduating with degrees in science or engineering, the opportunities outside of the defense industry are plentiful. Military contractors must compete with a myriad of manufacturing, technology, service, and governmental organizations for intellectual capital. Nanotechnology, bioengineering, genetic research, as well as diverse careers in entertainment and telecommunications are enticing new graduates.

In addition, a decade of turmoil in the aerospace and defense industry has tainted the sector with a reputation of being unstable, dissuading potential employees from entering the field. Second only to a career in medicine, engineering used to be the degree parents most recommended to their children. Evidence suggests that this is no longer the case, and that parents are now discouraging their children from entering an industry that exhibits the volatility that the aerospace and defense industry has witnessed.

Conclusion

The aerospace industry as a whole is making a concerted effort to attract and retain new graduates. This is evident in the targeting of schools, through the establishment of programs that support research, pregraduation internships, and mentoring activities once a new hire is on the job. However, retention is a major problem, as the attrition rate in the 1–6 year range is approximately 2 times greater in the aerospace industry than in the overall new graduate population.

Industry surveys reveal that approximately half of the current workforce perceives a worsening outlook in the aerospace industry because of the continuing retirement of scientists and engineers, and also believes that the hiring outlook is getting worse or steadily declining. Certainly, many factors contribute to this view—the general economic outlook, questions by young graduates about ethics in the defense industry, and the projected forecast of the space budget as a percentage of the entire defense budget, and how that could affect the aerospace job market.

The U.S. government's response to these problems has been varied. The National Defense Education Act, originally instituted in 1958 and reinstituted in 2006, awards scholarships and grants to science and engineering students, with a requisite payback period in government service. This reconstituted program was originally funded at $10 million the first year, with an increase to $20 million the second year. It is hoped that this level of increase will continue until $100 million is reached. This does appear to be a strong force to begin addressing the challenge of increasing the number of students with the appropriate degrees into the industry.

Nevertheless, more needs to be done at the 30–40-year-old range. These are individuals who either left or never came to the defense industry during the early 1990s. Attracting back these individuals from alternate industries is the challenge for the United States to meet in the next 5–10 years.